Canephora is quoted in London, on ICE, in contracts of ten tonnes. Arabica, for its part, is quoted in New York. Two species, two exchanges, two prices that can diverge.

This price is not the price of coffee, it is the price of the contract. It reflects the positions of those who buy and sell this contract, not the state of the coffee. In other words, it can rise without a single bag having moved from a warehouse.

The rise is signaled in May 2024, when the specialized press reports a 45-year high. On September 26, 2024, the November contract touches 5,575 dollars a tonne, an all-time record. In mid-February 2025, the market registers 5,849 dollars a tonne, the historic peak of the series.

Three facts add up behind this figure. A drought in Vietnam, the country that weighs the most in world canephora supply. Brazilian arabica harvests revised downward, the other species thus becoming scarcer. And Vietnamese growers holding back their coffee instead of selling it.

The rise can also be read at the end of the chain. The average price of Ugandan canephora in London goes from 4.09 to 5.42 dollars a kilo in one year, a 33% increase.

Then comes the correction. Vietnamese supply recovers, Brazil has a big arabica year, and the November 2026 contract quotes 3,644 dollars a tonne in mid-August 2026. More than a third lost from the peak.

LC ch. 18; Perfect Daily Grind, May 2024; Comunicaffe, September 26, 2024; Business Recorder, February 17, 2025; Ecofin Agency 2025; Cocoa Intel, August 13, 2026; level: financial and specialized press